Games get tougher the higher you play 100 Stud 8

[Johnny#5]

I found this hand sort of interesting looking at it later and decided to crunch a few numbers to evaluate the EV of Seat 4's river call.

If we assume Seat 1 has a random 4-card low on 6th then he has an A in the hole 43.7% of the time. This might seem really high but there are three big factors increasing the probability:

-There are several dead little cards already, namely 8,3,2,2 on 3rd
-Seat 4 presumably has 2 little cards in the hole himself.
-Neither the 6 nor 5 that Seat 1 has up has paired him. This greatly increases the probability of an A in the hole.

Seat 1 will river any low (A or not) 31.6% of the time and a low without an A 12.3% of the time. Unfortunately for Seat 4, the fact that Seat 1 has connected cards showing means that he will river a straight and a low 4.1% of the time, so on about 8.2% of all possible rivers Seat 1 will have Q high with a random low.

So ... IF you assume the river raise means a made low and only a made low you will win 1/2 the pot with your K high 8.2/31.6 = 26% of the time. Under these assumptions you could call the river getting 3:1 or better for the high 1/2. However, he could show up with various high hands as well, e.g. 56789, flush, trips, aces up. And he could throw out a bluff raise with Q high (or think he's bluffing with A high).

Just thought I'd post it since I did it anyway. I still think this river play is dubious but you can plausibly argue for it. And it might give you a reference to make a decision from if you decide to make your own heroic K high calls [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]