Population model for the future of poker professionals

[Heisenb3rg]

Poker for the longest time was an untapped gold mine...
This could only last for so long. It's too easy to make at least 2x minumem wage in the game at the small stakes. Anyone who is average or above intelligence with decent discipline and can read a book can accomplish this right now. There is NO way the games will get better than they are right now. It will go downhill, I have no doubt.

However, I am fully confident it will not die. Poker will imo reach close to an equilbrium point where a sustainable economy exists, and the games simply CANNOT get tougher.

My prediction on the future of poker:

Poker is part of macho male culture, it always will be. Gambling addictions are severe, common and a byproduct of our psychology, not just our society. This will always be there. This will stay relativly constant. How much apart of male mucho culture will fluxuate, but I can't see it dying. Poker in my opinion is the perfect game for bullys with gambling addictions.

Note: Things effecting the medium of "how" we play poker also has a drastic effect on this and drastically changes my model below. This includes legislation. In the past this would include things like online poker and televised poker.

I predict the poker economy will behave similar to a biological system hypohtesised by thomas malthus (high school stuff :P ) http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/malthus/malthus.0.html

Where the fish, are the food, and we are the predators.But in this situation, the predators can also feed on predators.

Picture a graph with the Y axis being #Poker pros, X axis being time. I predict it will be broken up into five phases.

Stage 1: Y increases exponetially relative to T
Stage 2: Y increases logarithmically relative to T
Stage 3: Y noticeably decreases relative to T
Stage 4: Y very very slowly decreases relative to T
Stage 5: Equilbrium reached, with Y slightly oscilating respect to T.

I think we are in stage 2 right now.

Stage 0: Nearly everyone is a fish, poker knowledge is weak. Huge part of our culture, tons of players coming in. People do not realize how much profit there is in poker.

Stage 1: So many people are drawn the prospect of easy money, that people come from all over. With books out there they can learn to feed on the fish very quickly as well as defend themselves from being fed on. People are quitting their jobs, quitting university because the money is good. People see their freinds playing poker professionally making so much money and come in themeselves.
A "boom" in professionals.

Stage2:
Population overcrowding is now starting to feel it's effects, with some players dying off, but more players coming in than going out because the fish are still plentiful. The fish population is decreasing too because skill is inreasing, thus they are going broke faster.

Stage 3:
Eventually the pro's will swamp the number of addicts, making games tough , and fishy tables hard to come by. Trust me when I say we're not even close to this stage yet.
While many players still make a reasonable living, many others are forced to quit because they go broke.
Fish are going broke faster than ever.

Stage 4:
Eventually the system has come close to reaching an equilbrium point. This is where I predict it to differ from the malthusian model.

The "good" will not be able to sustain a living anymore so will be forced into getting a job or go busto equivilent to "dying" . The great should be still be able to survive. However, because of the influx of players, there should be more great players than early in the population, causing the fish to go broke faster and faster , causing a decline in the number of fish in the system.. Also killing off some pros.

Stage 5: Eventually the best players wont be able to get much better, the old greats will die off, and rate of new players becoming good is equal to the rate of old pros dying off. This is when the true equilbrium point will be reached.

We wont see stage 5 in our life time.I am talking poker in general however, limit itself may die.