an old raising the turn post

[Befolder]

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Everybody's missing Shill's point. He's not saying OP should or should not have raised the turn; he's saying that IF you're going to raise the turn you also need to bet the river when checked to.

Since the hand is HU when the action gets to Hero on the turn, he'd need > 24 outs to improve for the raise to be for drawing value. So, if we're raising for value, it's for best-hand value. If we have the best hand on the turn, the river card needs to improve Villan to a better hand > 50% of the time for a bet on the river to not be similarly for value. This is all, of course, based on having a read that Villan doesn't do [censored] [censored] like smooth-call a turn raise with TPTK so that he can c/r the river.

Shill complicated the matter somewhat by including commentary about metagame play, to-wit: You should also be raising this turn on a semi-bluff with hands like BPTK and nut-flush draws, and following up with a bet on the river to put your opponent off his reads. This really doesn't apply to micro games as a) your opponents aren't usually paying any attention to what you do, and b) your oppoenents aren't usually able to fold hands like 2nd pair. This is a bit of a tautology, of course, as any opponent that IS paying attention, is ALSO likely to be able to fold 2nd pair, it's just that finding such a Villan in a micro game is rare.

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Thank you Boz. I was about to post the same thing. The rest of you missed the point of the post, which is not to analyze the hand. That was already done. The discussion was to be about the theory and it basically has to do with playing the same way w/ a couple different hand possibilities.

Shillx point is that if you only make this turn raise move w/ that same kind of hand, any observant villain will know exactly what you have every time you do it.

By making the play in at least two different situations, one where you're pretty sure you're ahead and then the other times as a semi bluff, you'll get paid off more when you're good, which is the majority of the times you should be making the play.

It also kind of refers back to optimal bluffing frequency, though not directly. I think this was in TOP and if bluffing is used at the right ratio to your good hands, it's undefenseable or something like that.