Fold this Set on Flop?

[Sean Fraley]

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VegasNick: your recent posts always put the opponent on a monster hand. This isn't always the case for two reasons: 1) big hands are mathematically less likely; and 2) most opponents suck (at least at these stakes).

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QFT. This is one of the signs that give me the impression that you haven't played online seriously for too large of a sample size yet. By the time you get 50k or more hands under your belt, you suddenly begin to realize that:

1) uNL villains are scared to death that they won't get action on their big hands, therefore

2) their normal course of action when flopping a flush (or any big hand) is to slowplay at least on the flop. A lot will check-call a flopped flush on the flop and turn and then shove or check-raise the river, even if the board pairs twice.

3) If a uNL villain isn't a rock or a complete and unremitting calling station they like to bluff like rabid monkeys, and for some reason shoving one card nut flush draws seems to be a favorite pastime among these donkeys.