crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[ImStillBen]

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Before the season, ~3.5% would have been a very conservative projection.

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All I want is for you to show me where you come up with this number. That's all I'm asking.

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That probability was arrived at via a highly robust and historically accurate player projection model coupled with a Monte Carlo simulation engine. I trust my numbers and they indicate that Tampa was a favorable bet though obviously unlikely to cash. You can go on the theory that "Tampa suckz yo" and use some poorly applied statistics to justify not taking the same bet. That difference of opinion is what makes this thing go.