OT: Winrates playing live WSOP satellites in LV

[yellowjack]

I'm trying to figure out my hourly rate playing the winner-take all satellites and am hoping you guys can help me out.

Suppose I am playing a $200 10-man satellite to a $2k event. Given how bad the players are, I expect to win 20% of the time. Also, I am assuming that the satellite will take 2 hours to complete.

Is the 20% too optimistic, pessimistic?
How about the length of time it will take to complete?

I plugged in those numbers and got the following:
winrate = ( 0.2*(+$1800) + 0.8(-$200) ) / 2 hrs = $100/hr

Thoughts?

Also note I have no idea on the wait time for these satellites.