First hand at the Final Table - Clash of the Big Stacks

[TT_fold]

[ QUOTE ]
You're dead against A2, bigger pockets or a set. You're vastly ahead of A9, a smaller PP or a total steal. Against two diamond overs, which is what I would want to have making this move, you're in a coin flip:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1425163
pokenum -h th tc - ad jd -- 2d 9d 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c 9d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Th 508 51.31 482 48.69 0 0.00 0.513
Ad Jd 482 48.69 508 51.31 0 0.00 0.487</pre><hr />Villain may be tricky but he cannot be stupid. To risk his stack against the one player who can knock him out there has to be a reason. I fold here. I don't even know if I call KNOWING it's a coin flip to be honest since I can't help but feel there will be much better edges to come with my still-sizable stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I knew this hand would be a coinflip, even with all the dead money in the pot, I'd have to advocate a fold.

And yes, I realize playing for first in MTTs is usually superior, but folding still leaves us with the 2nd chip stack.

BTW, I don't really consider myself to be in the accumulator camp OR the survivalist camp. Rather, I'm all about maximizing my $EV in any tournament, and folding here seems to be best unless you consider him likely to be on missed overcards.

Just out of curiosity, what was the payout structure for this tournament? I'd love to see an ICM-type analysis of the minimum percentage edge you'd need in order to call the check-raise on the flop. I venture that it is much higher than 50%, even with all the dead money.