A question about evolution

[jgca]

Also, even their ridululously premised equation isn't even close to correct.

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Next, since there are 3.2 billion nucleotides in the human genome, the probability of one particular nucleotide being altered is 3.2 billion to one. To determine the mathematical probability of the genetic changes necessary for the hypothesized “evolution” between chimps and people, it is necessary to multiply 3.2 billion times 48 million.

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1) There is no logical reason to set the probability of 1 nucleotide out of n being mutated (in the right way) at 1/n. These figures have no relationship whatsoever. It's like saying that the odds of my cousin Nathan sprouting fairy wings tomorrow, or eating breakfast tomorrow, are each 1/30, since I have 30 cousins.

2) The formula assumes that only a single organism is reproducing with mutation in each generation.

3) But the most egregious mathematical mistake leaves their bogus long odds dramatically shorter than they ought to be. The odds of a 1/n shot happening m times in a row is not 1/(n*m). It's (1/n)^m. 3.2 billion to the power of 48 million. They go through all this bad science and bad math to come up with a staggering "153 followed by 15 zeros", when the figure should have billions of decimal places.