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Help...vvv basic EV calc
OK...
Almost sure I am doing something wrong...Please help fix silly mistakes [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] 100BB stacks. Hero is SB w/ A9cc Villain Button with AsAh All fold to villain, raises to 3.5BB, hero calls, BB folds. 8.5BB in pot. Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] jack[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero leads 7 BB, BTN raises to 30BB, Hero shoves. If we 48/52 dog, and villain calls 100%, we lose $4 per hand. 200*.48 = 96$... now...if he folds 10% of the time... 45.5BB(8.5BB + 7BB + 30BB) (45.5BB*1*.1)+(200*.48*.9) 4.55 + 86.4 = 90.95 = lower EV than called all the time... . Clearly wrong, and yet I cannot figure out where?? |
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