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Question on basic probability and Ev
Could somebody please comment on validity of the following analysis of EV for me please:
________________________________________ Game is NL holdem Villain range is {55, 22, KQs, KQo} Hero has 8c7c Board is Qc2c5cKd Hero equity at Turn = 0.82273 Villain equity at Turn = 0.17727[/i] Turn (Qc2c5cKd) Villain bets $8 into $14 pot, Hero to act Effective remaining stacks after bet is $32.7 ________________________________________ Option 1: ..Hero calls and pushes river (Hero folds perfectly when beaten) ..villain folds river 0.4, calls 0.6 (0.82*22)-(0.18*8) = 16.6 << Value at turn (16.6*0.4)+(32.7*0.6) = <font color="red">36.22</font> << includes river push & fold % Option 2: ..Hero pushes turn ..villain folds 0.5, calls 0.5 (0.82*54.7)-(0.18*40.7) = 37.5 << value of push (37.5*0.5)+ (0.5*22) = <font color="red">29.75</font> << includes fold % ________________________________________ So it appears Option 1 is more EV.. however.. this assumes that Hero can fold perfectly when beaten.. If villain folded the best hand 20% of the time on the river his EV would be 0.8*36.22 = 28.97 |
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