Top 12 Analysis

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With a couple somewhat surprising eliminations this week, I thought I would write my take on the top 12 and what the eliminations mean for them.

Melinda Doolittle

She is a no-brainer. Obviously, she's the favorite right now. However, the elimination of Sabrina Sloan presents an increased edge for Melinda, IMO. While many said Sabrina had no shot, a few thought she could ultimately give the Melinda/Lakisha battle a run for its money. With this obstacle out of the way, I think she has a slightly increased edge after tonight.

Lakisha Jones

Much of what was said for Melinda applies to Lakisha. She is the obvious 2nd-favorite. The only possible threat in her "class" from below will be Stephanie. Even then, it really isn't close. Because of the remaining girls, the Lakisha/Melinda battle is imminent.

Chris Sligh

One of the favorites among the guys, Chris' edge increased tonight with the elimination of Sundance. Sundance was pretty bad to begin with, but there was always a potential seen by many that he could emerge as one of the front-runners for the guys. I see Chris in a league of his own as I believe Blake and Chris R. will battle for a shared fan base. His only possible threat (and it's small right now) outside of Blake and Chris is Phil, who is a pretty generic singer. See Phil's write up for more detail on why he could be a threat.

Blake Lewis

While Blake is a very likable contestant, he is at risk for an elimination once the dead money (see Sanjaya and Haley) dies off. His fan base has peaked, IMO, and he will need to fight to keep it. He and Chris R. are the only two contestants who share a "cool guy" image and offer somewhat unique performances. Unfortunately, not everyone likes that stuff, so they will be neck and neck for the rest of the way. A slip by Blake combined with an outstanding performance by Chris R. could send Blake packing earlier than expected.

Chris Richardson

Much of what I wrote about Blake applies to Chris. The factor that could put Chris past Blake is his versatility when it comes to vocals. Blake's vocals are OK, but he relies a lot on gimmicks to keep the fans interested. Chris showed last week that he can sing country reasonably well and I don't think the same could be said for Blake. Ultimately, I think Chris R. has the potential to out-sing Blake during the themed song nights.

Jordin Sparks

The only reason I don't place her in the class of Melinda/Lakisha/Stephanie is because she has that "wow, look how great she sings for a 17 (?) year old!" appeal. Furthermore, her style is different than the other three. While she is at the greatest risk compared to the others due to her youth (and presumed inexperience which could subject her to slipping all of a sudden), she has the potential to deliver that "WOW" impact. She may garner some younger votes that Melinda/Lakisha/Stephanie won't be able to.

Stephanie Edwards

Sabrina's early elimination should serve as a warning sign for Stephanie. Unless she can kick it up a notch in the next 2 weeks, she is probably gone. As I've mentioned, her fan base is largely taken by the top 2 divas so her only hope is to find a way to offer something different.

Phil Stacey

This guy has been very inconsistent and has the tendency to appear weird (in a bad way). The only way I can see that he will rise to a "threat" level is if he pulls off a string of great performances during the "weeding out" period (of Sanjaya and Haley). He potentially has 2 weeks to develop a fan base. His style is completely different that Blake/Chris R.'s, so if he miraculously pulls off a couple of good sons where he seems to build up a bit of a fan base, look for him to threaten Sligh.

Gina Glocksen

She's in a league of her own, and whether or not that's a good thing is hard to tell. When she is "herself" like last night, she is likable. When forced to sing certain types of songs, she's probably lost. Even so, she's better than Haley and could last longer due to her "only white girl left" status.

Brandon Rogers

Although I think he's a good singer, this guy should've been gone a couple of weeks ago. He's a mystery really, so it's hard to evaluate his potential. I do think he has potential, but his early performances (which were pretty poor) hurt his chances of developing a fan base. However, much like Phil, I think he has a couple weeks to step it up and contend.

Haley Scarnato

Dead money, as I've alluded to. She has the "attractive white girl" working for her now that Antonella is gone, but lacks any solid singing talent.

Sanjaya Malakar

It pains me to be writing his name in this thread, but he found a way to squeeze into the top 12. Again, dead money. He has virtually no chance of stepping up his singing, so it's all a matter of when his fan base either gives up or can't offer enough votes to keep him around.


With all of that said, here is the order of my projected eliminations (mostly in the order given above):

12. Haley Scarnato
11. Sanjaya Malakar
10. Gina Glocksen
9. Brandon Rogers
8. Stephanie Edwards
7. Phil Stacey
6. Blake Lewis
5. Jordin Sparks
4. Chris Richardson
3. Lakisha Jones
2. Chris Sligh
1. Melinda Doolittle

I do think Phil Stacey going out at #7 seems a bit too optimistic, but I see him differentiating himself enough to do so. I think Phil and Brandon at 7 & 9 are interchangeable.

Comments/discussion?