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Old 03-01-2007, 02:26 AM
ebaudry ebaudry is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 361
Default How\'s my PostFlop? Top Pair with Flush Draw

First level of live $340 tournament at the Bike, ~500 entries. Started with 1500 chips, blinds are 25/25, i have 1350 left. BTN has 1050.

I limp in MP with KJs (let's ignore if this was wise or not...)

BTN limps behind (he'd made position plays both last 2 orbits)

Blinds check.

Board: K6s3 one spade (Pot t100)

Blinds check, i elect to CR the button's likely potshot instead of my normal 3/4-pot bet.

Button bets t100, sb calls, i decide to CR and take the pot. Raising to 350.

Button calls, SB folds.

Turn Board: K6s35s [Pot: 900]

I now have about 1000 left, villain has about 600.

When he called my checkraise i put him on KQ/KJ/KT for top pair, 33/66 for a set, K6 for top two, or 54 for the Open ended straight draw. I felt that KQ, 33 and 54 were his most likely possibilities. His other hands i feel would fold to the checkraise or would have raised PF.

I decided that since he called my checkraise he was unlikely to fold to a turn bet since more than half his chips were out there and he now had at least TPgK or midpair with an Open ended.

For my side of things, even though i presumed myself likely beat, i still had a lot of outs if behind. The pot was equal to my stack, so i didn't feel much ability to abandon it either. I decided to check and hope he checked behind. With the strength of my hand i didn't think i'd fold to a bet from him, so also i didn't mind if he put more money in the pot if he chose to bet.

He insta-pushed, leaning me towards the KQ or 54 possibilities since i believe he would have almost certainly tried harder to get me in the pot if he had the set.

At this point the pot contained the 900 flop pot plus the villains 600 stack for a total of 1,500.

I was getting now 600/1500 odds if i called off my 1000 stack. 2.5:1 odds.

VS:
AA- King, Jack and Spades make my hand, i have about 14 outs, or a roughly 30% chance to win on the River. Here i like my 2.5:1.

KQ- Jacks and Spades make my hand for 12 outs or ~25% to win on the River. Here i no longer like my 2.5:1

33/66/55- Only spades make my hand, and not all of them since some will pair his kicker for a fullhouse. Here, my 2.5:1 is terrible.

54- the the only hand i'm beating, and he has a lot of outs against me. Presuming all spades are in play, he has 10 outs against me for a ~21% chance to win. Here my 2.5:1 is overkill.


Sooooooooooo:

Do you call with your TPgK+FD?

Thanks for any responses and other considerations i may have overlooked.
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