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Pwnage or just bad luck?
I'm playing $1/2 NL in AC. Table's been moderately loose, but, in particular, MUCH larger than standard PF bets are being called.
I'm in the CO with about $200. I'm dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Two limpers to me. I raise to $15. The BB calls, as does the earliest limper. Flop (pot $48): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me. I don't want to seem too happy, but I also don't want to miss a bet here, so I put out $35. BB calls. Turn (pot $118): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to me again. I put out $75, just under 1/2 my stack. BB thinks for a while, asks my remaining stack, which I tell him. Then I get "(sigh) I guess I gotta call." Even though he's been somewhat talkative, this sets my BS detector off. I figue I'm either skunked by something like 88, or, more likely, I'm up against KJ. The way this table's been playing, even J8 or J7 is possible. River (pot $268): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB puts me all-in. Now I'm pretty sure I'm in trouble, since I read him for a strong hand on the turn, which he confirmed for me on the river. He's got at least trip jacks here--I don't see this as a bluff. I call, though, because I figure pot odds vs. the chance he's betting a weaker trip, compel it. He turns over T9o. 1. I feel I played ok through the turn. Was the river a weak call or am I forced to pay him off? Was the size of the flop bet ok? Obv he's getting short odds against a paired board, but if he thinks he'll get a third caller, plus the obvious likelihood that I didn't fill up, it's a marginal call given implied odds. How SHOULD I size this bet? |
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