the so-called Baluga Theorem (kinda long)

[MTSuper7]

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We fold. One pair is not good here. A draw does this about never. We have to bet this turn because we can't let spades draw, and we need value from worse A's, but now that he raises, we can rule out worse A's and draws.


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One hand we have beat that might reraise all-in here is both a worse A AND a draw: A5 of spades or A7 of spades. I agree that we are beat most of the time, and probably by two pair since UTG limped then called our raise. A-8 would make the most sense, unless he flopped a set (but I don't see someone flopping a set not raising this flop considering it has two spades and that you probably hit your A). Of course, heads-up it isn't unreasonable to slow play a set with that board. In summary, yes we should fold because we are behind most of the time (though not always).