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Limit Hold\'em - loose 10k hands in a row?
I have a friend who is also a poker player. He isn't really a student of the game, but he did study statistics in college.
I was discussing varience in Limit Hold'em, and I mentioned that is was possible for even winning players to go on prolonged loosing streaks. I said these streaks can go one for thousands of hands with the over all winning players not winning a single hand. He insisted that, in 10-handed full ring Limit Poker, any player is going to win an average of one hand per orbit. Thus loosing 100 hands in a row is 10-1 against, and 1000 hands in a row is 100-1 against. I only know what I read, and I've read some horrible varience stories here. Assuming that you are a consistent 4BB/100 winner, how many hands would you have to play to encounter a 10k hand loosing streak? And assuming 20k hands of poker a month (not unreasonable for an on-line pro/semi-pro) how long would you have to play before you encountered such a streak? My friend says it isn't possible in an average person's lifetime. |
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