EP limp re-reraise against super donk - How often is this AA?

[Rick Nebiolo]

This hand comes from a $5 big blind B&M game with capped buy-in somewhere in Los Angeles. I’ve been in the game for 30 minutes playing moderately aggressively and getting in some play so my image is looser than normal.

What appears to be a solid, thinking player limps for $5 UTG. We have another limper and a super-donk makes it $15 in the CO+1. Super-donk had been raising almost every hand BTF and playing horribly recklessly aggressive post flop. That said he hit about three miracles in the last few hands and was about $900 deep.

A loose passive player in the CO had taken one of the recent beats from the super-donk and had been openly talking about going home (it’s about 2:00am) and goes all-in for $87. Button folds and I look down at black kings in the SB. I’m only about $340 deep (small winner so far) and for reasons I don’t want to debate here I smooth call hoping to get action from the other players (most likely the super-donk).

The BB folds and now the UTG limper goes all in for about $400. Next limper folds. The super-donk thinks about calling but finally folds. Action is on me and I'm looking at a three-way main pot of about $280 (after drop) and the all-in side pot would be $500 (including my remaining $250 if I call).

A few questions:

About how often do you think UTG (or more importantly the combination of UTG and the CO) would have aces here? Assume UTG understands I’m probably very strong smooth calling the original $87 all-in bet from the CO player.

Would you strongly consider folding kings BTF with this action? Could/should you do it?

~ Rick