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[ QUOTE ] Well, since it creates an arb, one of the two lines has value. Most of the time it is the non-Pinny book, so there is almost certainly value at Bodog. Good find. [/ QUOTE ] Must there be stand-alone value in one side for every arb? (honest question) [/ QUOTE ] Yes. Given that there is a theoretical "true line" for each possible outcome, any line that deviates from it has value. Think of it this way: even if one of the lines perfectly coincides with the percentage chance a certain outcome will occur, it is still only EV-neutral by itself. If, however, a bet offering more than the equivalent odds on the opposite side exists, then it must be a +EV play. In practice, hedging with Pinnacle's lines is slightly -EV because Pinnacle is usually the sharper book and is offering odds worse than the "true line." |
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