bonds to not break HR record +240

[crockpot]

i bet this at greek today. bonds' pecota projection is well below 22 HR, and even if you give him credit for far more plate appearances (my guess is around 400 if he doesn't get arrested), i don't think he breaks the record more than 50-60% of the time.

the hardball times had a good writeup of his chances: link, which concludes that he is certainly not a big favorite. the percentage chart at the bottom is of particular note.

one problem is that the giants probably won't contend for the playoffs, so they may get barry as much time as possible at the end of the year to break the record. however, i doubt any pitchers are going to lob him meatballs like they did for mcgwire in '98, and if anything they may walk him to avoid giving the record to a guy they hate.

i don't love tying my money up for eight months either, but an edge of 40% is hard to pass up with prevailing interest rates of 5%/year.