Value Bet vs. donktardamus?

viper930 · #1 02-05-2007, 05:34 PM

Villain is the reason I am at the table and is clocking in at 52/4/1.3. We have tangled a bit and I have been owning him so far. Two or three orbits before the hand in question, this hand happened:

Full Tilt Poker
$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
9 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
BB: $103.3
Hero (UTG): $425
UTG+1: $427.20
MP1: $400
MP2: $624.90
MP3: $307.70
CO: $394
BTN: $726
SB: $1030

Preflop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 9 players)
Hero calls $4, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $4, MP3 folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $2, BB checks

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($16, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $13, MP2 folds, SB calls $13, BB folds

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($42, 2 players)
SB bets $30, Hero raises to $100, SB calls $70

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($242, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $200, SB raises all in to $915, Hero calls all in for $108
Uncalled bet of $607 returned to SB

Results:
Hero had 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Fives full of Jacks) and won $855
SB had 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Jacks)
Final Pot: $855.00 ($3.00 rake)

Villain's river AF is surprisingly high compared to his AF for other postflop streets (river AF = 7) Given this information and the previous hand, is a value bet on this 3flush board a good idea? My thinking is that it's more than likely that my hand is good, but I would be in a pretty tough spot if I toss out a $200 vb and get c/r ai'd for the rest of villain's stack (which I found very possible due to his fairly tight pfr range, river action on the last hand we tangled, and his river check). Who's in favor of vb'ing here and who checks behind? Reasoning and comments please.

Full Tilt Poker
$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
7 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
Hero (BTN): $1304.40
SB: $394
BB: $631.9
UTG: $279.30
UTG+1: $720.40
MP1: $693.80
MP2: $666.20

Preflop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6, 7 players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $14, Hero calls $14, SB folds, BB calls $10

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($44, 3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $36, BB folds, MP2 calls $36

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($116, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $90, MP2 calls $90

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($296, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero...