Very interesting hand

[FishSticks]

Well let's see here...

I've been out of poker a while now, so my elite math skills might be rusty ;-)

Looks like you're risking 193 to win 435, so I think you need like 31% equity to be +EV.

Against a set, you have a touch under 30% equity. Against a straight you have about 13% equity. If he's pretty much always holding a set or a straight, the play is a losing play.

If he's willing to do this with 2pair, you have like 45-50% equity - so the play is a winning one against 2 pair.

I guess the idea is if the villain is only gonna this with a set or flopped straight, pushing is no good. If the villain is doing this with a wider range, pushing is sweet. As it turns out, this opponent was one willing to do it with a wider range, so the push is good.

I'm just saying that if you know the dude is nitty, the push is actually bad here - weird as that might seem.