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Old 02-13-2006, 10:21 AM
Phil153 Phil153 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,905
Default The Theory of PLO8 (low content)

I intend to spend the next two weeks working out the theory and math behind PLO8. I'll be writing a comprehensive analysis of starting hands and common post flop situations. The bias will be toward 100-200 PLO8 as played online but much of it will be applicable to other limits also.

Topics will include:

<ul type="square">[*]Starting Hand Categories Ranked by:
- Preflop Expectation vs Number of Opponents
- Chance of flopping a high equity hand
- Actual winrate from real data.
- An analysis of each hand type by position.
- List of the top X% of hand types ranked by profitability.
[*]Common Flop Situations:
-Various odds vs # of Opponents - Chance that opponents have a flush draw, nut low draw, second nut low draw, etc on various flops.
-The Expectation Value of various hands on the flop: One Pair/Two Pair/Set/Flush/Low draw on a Rainbow/2 flush/1 low/ 2 low etc boards vs no. of opponents.
-The Expectation Value of betting, raising, slowplaying, checkraising with hands of varying strengths.
-Key implications of this.
[*]Pot Building, Equity, and Expectation
Some general theory to tie in with the above.
[*]Metagame considerations
Preflop raising, image, taking marginal spots - as applies to PLO8.[/list]
I expect to spend a good many hours on this. I have a math degree so the math shouldn't be too hard (although very tedious [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) Anyone have suggestions for further content/areas of enquiry? Odds they would like included? Situations for analysis?

Also, it would help if I could get access to a solid winning player's database at the $200 level. I currently have about 7,000 hands at this level which is not enough to make fine distinctions between certain hand types - sample size is a killer when trying to find out the difference between A24x and A25x/A34x. Even a $100PL database would be very helpful. If no one is forthcoming (which I expect will be the case [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) I'll mostly be using data from about my own 60K hands of $50 &amp; $100PL.

Any further suggestions, ideas, etc?
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