this week's cbb pick

[NajdorfDefense]

Penn -4.5 vs Temple.

I like the Fightin' Quakers here at home minus the Points. Yeah, it's a rivalry, and yeah, Temple plays at palestra 2-3 times a year, and yeah Dunphy was the Penn coach.

But Penn has the horses this year and the Owls don't. Temple is 7-10, 1-4 ATS as a dog. They're 2-6 on road, avg loss is 8 pts.
Penn is 4-2 home, avg margin is +7.

Temple lost at home to Drexel by 15. To URI by 8 last game at home. Penn is 4-2 last 6, all road games, including a loss to UNC in Chapel Hill and Seton Hall, not exactly bad losses.

Sagarin makes this a 7pt game, I make it a tiny bit bigger, so the drop from 6 to 4.5 [and maybe lower] makes it a good pick imho. Last 9 Penn is 6-3 ats v Temple, for a past look.

2 units so far on Penn. May add.