Axx or Kxx or AKx flops

[HitNRunPoster]

You have 44.

What's the chance of a Axx or Kxx or AKx flop? 1/3?

That seems ridiculously high to me but I'd like ot know. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

My justification for the 1/3 number, if you're up for something a little funny...

I thought that since the chance of pairing one of your hole cards is about 1/3 (caro reference?), that if I just picked two cards (AK) the chance would have to be higher than 1/3, since I haven't pulled those cards out of the deck.

But when I think about it, I don't know if 1/3 of my flops have contained A or K over the last couple hundred k hands or whatever.