Variance

[Abbaddabba]

When i hear about these things, the first thing i think is that someone just isnt as big a winner as they think they are.

Not necessarily that they're losing.

Low winrates are going to produce large downswings pretty frequently.

Just because you've got 100k hands worth of data as a 2BB/100 winner doesnt mean you are. And if for the next 100K you break even, the new weighted average is 1BB/100. In which case, the large-ish downswing isnt so out of the question. But people have the tendency to give more consideration to the database that puts them in a positive light.

I think that everyone is guilty of these sorts of things on some level. Even if you're trying to be honest with yourself, it can affect your behavior. An example ive found is that if i play on my laptop and have a great session, i am excited to import hands to my PC. If i have a poor session, i usually put it off and im sure at least a couple of times i have forgotten (not consciously). I seldom play on my laptop so it doesnt add up to anything significant, but things like these add up. Another exammple is choosing to start a database when you've had a favorable stretch, but saying '[censored] this' if you hit a rough stretch. When i asked if my friend if he wanted my excel poker log spreadsheet, he said "i cant win lately.. why would i want to track my results?" Which makes sense. You are more likely to track these things in good times. Which biases the results that you have. SO when he does start, the beginning is almost for sure going to consist of a high point, which means it'll be ever so slightly biased.



The other most likely culprite is SD. A lot of you have thrown out numbers like 20 or 30 SD/100. Does that actually exist? My SD is historically less than 15 in small stakes, and 16 - 17 in short handed mid stakes. I cant imagine why the SD would be so dramatically higher in high stakes games. The AP mid stakes games are usually pretty aggressive as it is... i cant see them getting too much crazier.