HSNL prop bet

[palman]

currently we're an hour and thirty minutes into a 5 hour prop bet.

The bet is this:

a HSNL player (10/20 regular) has to play no more than 5 tables of .5/1 6 max on FT. If at any time he is up $400, he wins $400. If he fails to reach the target, he owes the $400. He has 5 hours to play.

Who's got the best side of the bet? Realize that the participant is obviously drinking, and not going to take it all that seriously. Furthermore, the games are significantly tougher than you'd imagine a .5/1 game being. Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.

What's the EV for all participants?

This all started because I found out I had $48 in my FT account and ran it up to 2k. I decided I'd run it up to 10k but I'm having problems at the low stakes. Obviously I'm thinking I'm making a grand a day and my roommates are snickering at me when I complain about the games.