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Old 01-04-2007, 09:32 PM
SL__72 SL__72 is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: The gun show.
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Default Re: LT AP\'s MVP

[ QUOTE ]
I think I get it.

Running backs are a non-factor in the game of football and should be eliminated.

Thanks for opening up my eyes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Running back is probably the most overrated position in football, but that doesn't make it unimportant. Consider this, Peyton passed the ball 557 times this season and LDT touched the ball just over 400 times. If you were to assume Peyton was going to gain the same number of yards per attempt that LDT does per touch, Peyton would obviously be more important because LDT only gets 70% as many touches. Now if you add factor in the extra 2+ yards per touch Peyton gets, its just not close anymore.

Obviously I'm over simplifying the argument by ignoring things like turnovers, first-downs and touchdowns... but this is the easiest way to explain why it is so hard for a non-QB to deserve MVP.

If you want to take things like turnovers/first downs/touchdowns into account, you can go over to footballoutsiders.com and look at their DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) numbers. Its no surprise that Peyton's is about 3 times higher then LDT.

That stat is determined on a play by play analysis of the season and takes all those things in to account. It is saying that replacing Peyton with a replacement level QB would cost your offense 3 times as many points over the coarse of this season as replacing LDT with a replacement level running back would.

And if that seems completely counter-intuitive to you, you probably aren't watching close enough when you watch the NFL or are completely blinded by sports center and fantasy football.
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