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Old 01-03-2007, 08:58 PM
DrJ DrJ is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 38
Default Should I hedge this \"bet\"? What is the highest EV move?

I've sold a pair of tickets to a game, but it is contingent upon another game.

If Team A wins, tickets are good, sale goes through, yadda yadda. If Team B wins, game doesn't happen, money has to be refunded.

Team A will be favored in the contest. Since Team B is yet to be determined, the spread is unknown.

Which offers higher EV:

1) Keeping my straight bet on Team A, who will be favored?

2) Hedging my bet, by betting half of the amount on Team B. Guaranteeing 50% of my money in most circumstances, but with a slight possibility of getting 150%?

Is #2 a higher EV no matter what the spread is? How much does the EV change as the spread increases?
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