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I've sold a pair of tickets to a game, but it is contingent upon another game.
If Team A wins, tickets are good, sale goes through, yadda yadda. If Team B wins, game doesn't happen, money has to be refunded. Team A will be favored in the contest. Since Team B is yet to be determined, the spread is unknown. Which offers higher EV: 1) Keeping my straight bet on Team A, who will be favored? 2) Hedging my bet, by betting half of the amount on Team B. Guaranteeing 50% of my money in most circumstances, but with a slight possibility of getting 150%? Is #2 a higher EV no matter what the spread is? How much does the EV change as the spread increases? |
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