TAG v. LAG style of play in MSSH (Cross-Post from SSSH Forum)

[StellarWind]

Just noticed this X-post. I've said many things in the SSSH thread and some have been misquoted or misunderstood. Here are some key things I said. I use the term TAG to refer to VPIP of 25% or less.

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I'm looking at my 20/40 6-max database for a second-tier site. It includes 172K hands averaging 5.16 players/hand played over a few weeks. I regularly play in this game so my numbers-view is supplemented by personal experience of how things work. The numbers are telling me things I already know because I see them in action everyday.

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VPIP doesn't matter nearly as much as most people think. Many successful players have VPIP well above 40%. The ideal range seems to be 28-38%. Players below 25% don't do well at all and are largely extinct in the population of regular winning players.

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PFR is more important than VPIP. Low PFR players lose almost without exception. Even more crucial is the difference between VPIP and PFR (calling percentage) which needs to be kept reasonably small. A tight player (VPIP 25-35%) should be calling maybe 7-10% of the time, mostly due to blind defense.

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24 players have at least 7000 hands in the database. These are the players who show up everyday and often multitable. 21 of these players are in the green! That's right, 21 winners and only 3 losers averaging +1.48 BB/100.


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Only four players (of the 24) have VPIPs under 30% of which the lowest was 26%. The average stats for the whole group are 36/19 and only six players have PFRs of 16% or lower.

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Do you see the picture? I can't even ask the question "Do TAGs win in this game?" because TAGs are virtually extinct. Players using the accepted best style have been so badly outcompeted that they are no longer part of the game

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Now for something new. 198 players in the DB have at least 1000 hands. Let's look at their group results:

PFR <= 12%: 42 players averaging -2.21 BB/100 including 9 winners and 33 losers.

PFR > 12, VPIP <= 25 (TAG): 5 players averaging -1.20 BB/100 including 2 winners and 3 losers. One of the two winners is a talented player at 24.4% or this would be even worse.

PFR > 15, VPIP 25-30%: 14 players averaging +0.68 BB/100 including 9 winners and 5 losers. Only two of these fourteen players are below 27%.

PFR > 15, VPIP 30-35% (LAG-TAG): 19 players averaging +1.22 BB/100 including 11 winners and 8 losers.

PFR > 15, VPIP 35-40%: 25 players averaging +1.46 BB/100 including 16 winners and 9 losers.

PFR > 15, VPIP 40-45%: 22 players averaging +1.22 BB/100 including 11 winners and 11 losers. This group includes several high-volume players whom I consider to be very dangerous postflop. Don't tell me none of them win because I don't believe you. Many of the other players in this group are quite bad.

PFR > 15, VPIP 45-50%: 16 players averaging -0.60 BB/100 including 6 winners and 10 losers. Aren't these players supposed to be burning in Hell!? -0.60 BB/100 is the penalty for being an aggressive clown preflop and usually bad postflop?

What do you think these numbers mean? At what point are you trying to rationalize the numbers to fit your preconceived notions of how poker works?

I can't emphasize enough that there is no "stupid person" filter in PT. Many of these players especially above 40% VPIP are idiots who make asinine coldcalls and play terribly postflop. What do you think these stats would look like if I only included players with postflop skills in the top 50% for this sample?