For those who don't think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[bilbo-san]

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I see that, but I don't see how that has anything to do with how fat the tails of the distribution are.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but if the tail is fatter the chance of a sample far from the mean is larger, right?

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I think a winning player has a fat tail to the right, and a thin tail to the left of the mean.

The more winning a player is, the more extreme this is.

Does that make more sense? Does that illustrate how negative swings become pretty unlikely the higher the winrate?