At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decisions

[TommyO]

There must be a point where if the jackpot gets big enough, it would make sense to make some loose calls with pocket pairs and suited connectors.

For example, the jackpot at my card room normally hits a couple of times a week. Assuming an average of 10 full tables, 35 hands per hour and the jackpot hitting every three days (10 * 9 * 35 * 24 * 3) would mean that you have about a 1 in 225,000 chance of hitting the jackpot on any given hand.

If the -EV for a given play is a fraction of a bet, if the jackpot gets big enough, the small but non zero +EV of the jackpot might be enough to turn a -EV play into a neutral or +EV play.

Here's a concrete example. Say the jackpot is $100,000 and you will win half of it if you make an eligible hand and lose and you will win one quarter of the jackpot if you win the hand. On average, you will make $37,500 if your hand is involved in a bad beat. This corresponds to 0.17 of EV on every hand. However, the EV must be significantly higher for pocket pairs and suited connectors.

Either I'm on to something, or I'm on something.