Golf-Probability Question

[burthoovis]

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STINKYPETE:
there would be lots of pga pros playing a higher variance game in their quest to win. some of them will be well back of the cut line with the final 9 holes (or whatever number) left to play. if they still want to win and not save face, they'll have to increase variance even more. a lot of their scores will suck. it's hard to quantify, but i'd say 150th would be at least +30 on average.

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I'm not sure how you are referring to 'the cut' here. The cut in a PGA event not only refers to who gets the money and who doesn't, it also refers to who gets to continue to play after 36 holes.

I don't think a golfer who is on the bubble for making the cut would necessarily alter his game greatly in order to make up strokes to the leader. A more reasonalbe approach would be to play your best game, make the cut, and then try and win the tournament over the next 36 holes.

You might have someone minimize risks to make the cut, but in almost all cases that's going to be a tactic to win and not a tactic for survival-sake. ( noting that there may be some limited cases where a making the cut for a new player or an open qualifying player will be their goal)

The players that would be playing a wild game might be those who were outside of the cut by a great number of strokes. And by great number of strokes I would assume more than 1 stroke per remaining hole. Even then, how many more risks can a player take than he is already taking ?

The opportunity to take high risk shots in golf is limited if you are really trying to score well. Perhaps carrying a water hazzard with your second shot on a par 5...or playing to a tight pin placement over a bunker...but I think the situations you're talking about already exist in golf.

Players on the bubble play two tournaments currently. One to make the cut, where they have nothing to lose. And then the second is to win the overall. In the second instance, you might get a player who minimizes risk to get a check, but in the first 36 holes I think you have everyone playing in an attempt to post their best score.

And for the purposes of the wager, as it's posed, only the first 36 holes count.