What is wrong with my thinking

[aslowjoe]

15 players left. a weak 50+5 field

blinds 800/1600 antes 100 8 handed.

I am 5th in chips with around 22,000
villan is 6th with about 21,000

Folded to villan on the bttn who open raises for 4800.
no good reads on villan except he has been involved in a few pots.
I have only recently been moved to this table. And havent done anything to raise attention

I have A9. I choose that hand because although weak takes away AA 3times AK and AQ 8 times thus reducing the hands that might call



Tell me if my thinking is flawed. The ave person in this spot is going to open around 25% of his hands. No reads so I have to assume ave.

at most he will call with the top 5% of his hands AQ TT
so 80% of the time i get about 30% added to my stack and the 20% of time i get call i am a 3-1 dog.

even if we widen the range and he calls with the top 8% AJ ATs 88
we still add 2/3 of or stack 30% and suck out 1 time in 3.

so pushing back with almost any 2 is +CEV. but how much does the 8000 chips add to my tourney equity? I think the leader had 35,000 at the time.
Also if Bttn folds and other players notice I might not be as large a target to steal