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#12
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Correct me if I am wrong. (I have only been to the track a few times)
Does not the fact that this calculator exist (in large numbers) and the fact that the House adjusts the odds based on the bets placed make the calculator -EV. The scenario goes something like this. YOU have the lone calculator. Calculator shows odds of favourite to win paying 4:1 Calculator shows his calculated odds of winning 3:1 You make a decent bet on the favourite. The house does not adjust the odds due to the small wager you placed. You win this bet 1 in 3. It works well and you make money. You sell a few million calculators. Everyone at the track has a calculator. It showes the favourite to win pays same 4:1 It shows his calculated odds of winning are 3:1 The everyone with a calculator makes this bet. Due to the large number of bets placed on this horse the House adjusts the odds down to 2.8:1 Favourite wins this race 1 in 3. Everyone loses. Is this not like changing horse racing into roulette?!? Perfect odds could be calculated for each Number (horse) winning and the house would have only a small 3% vig on each bet. Where people bet Outside the odds, the house has a greater advantage because they simply adjust the payout odds down. |
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