Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Two Plus Two > Special Sklansky Forum
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #12  
Old 12-07-2006, 12:59 PM
mindflayer mindflayer is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 541
Default Re: Proposing a Profitable and Useful Horserace Betting Gizmo

Correct me if I am wrong. (I have only been to the track a few times)
Does not the fact that this calculator exist (in large numbers) and the fact that the House adjusts the odds based on the bets placed make the calculator -EV.


The scenario goes something like this.
YOU have the lone calculator.
Calculator shows odds of favourite to win paying 4:1
Calculator shows his calculated odds of winning 3:1
You make a decent bet on the favourite.
The house does not adjust the odds due to
the small wager you placed.
You win this bet 1 in 3.
It works well and you make money.

You sell a few million calculators.
Everyone at the track has a calculator.
It showes the favourite to win pays same 4:1
It shows his calculated odds of winning are 3:1
The everyone with a calculator makes this bet.
Due to the large number of bets placed on this
horse the House adjusts the odds down to 2.8:1
Favourite wins this race 1 in 3.
Everyone loses.

Is this not like changing horse racing into roulette?!?
Perfect odds could be calculated for each Number (horse) winning and the house would have only a small 3% vig on each bet. Where people bet Outside the odds, the house has a greater advantage because they simply adjust the payout odds down.
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.