TPTK + Redraws vs. Field on Scary Board

BionicComma · #12 12-02-2006, 02:59 AM

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Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

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Lots of PF raising from decent players so you figure to be up against big suited cards or decent PPs.

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Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (17SB, 4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

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With the check and calls you are probably against at least one flush or straight draw. Other players could have anything from a strong pair to a set. Based on your read and PF action MP2 may have a set or big pair like QQ or KK here.

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Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10.5BB, 4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero ???

I figure no one raised me on the flop, so I'm discounting AT a bit.*

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What about from the SB or the tricky MP2 playing ATs?

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As it stands now, I'm ahead of AQ, KK, QQ (8+3+6=17 hands) and behind AA, JJ, TT, AJ, AT, and a flush (1+3+3+6+3*=16 hands)

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Good read.

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I really don't expect a flush to be out since the Queen is the only big club unaccounted for. I suppose 98s is an outside possibility, especially from the SB since his range is probably much too wide for someone who cold called 3.5SB preflop

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In a microstakes game 98s is definitely in the range of some people, especially the SB or the new player (MP1). SB might also have come in with something like QKo. Remember from SSHE: until otherwise proven, microstakes games are loose.

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I'm not scared of a flush due to the preflop aggression.

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You shouldn't be scared of the flush but not because of PF aggression; the flush isn't scary yet because you have a redraw to the nuts IMO. The same reasoning applies to a made straight: you have redraws to win and tie.

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With 12 potential outs (clubs/queens) as redraws to the nuts right now if I'm behind, I'm still about even money to be ahead right now against one sane opponent, but I'm probably behind at least one of the of two combined.

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Agreed.

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So, my question is, I do have TPTK and a ton of redraws in a massive pot. Is it worth betting again now, possibly for value, or should I just take a free card now and potentially get myself in a rough spot on the river if I don't improve and the others get excited?

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I think betting for value is advisable here. With 10.5 BB in the pot and the action to you, you are building pot equity if you fire then make the river club. Assuming there is at least one made flush out there, you have 7 outs to a club (2 on board, two in an opponents hand, and the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in yours). You also have the 3 other Q's for the top straight which we can count as half-outs because you assume there is a flush or straight already out there. Even assuming you are behind to two pair or a set, the only scare for you on the river should be a non club K or a rag.

Anyway, with ~8.5 outs 10.5 in the pot, a raise and two callers gives you 13.5-1 pot odds. If you bet and get reraised, you can call and check the river, again with good pot odds to play it out. You only need 4.5-1 to call with your hand.

If people just call when you fire at the turn then on the river I would call one bet as long as a scare card didn't come off. If I got reraised on my turn bet I would call if a Q, A or spade came otherwise I'd fold the river.

As always, open for debate. I often wonder if I have weak-tight tendencies so I welcome dissenting opinion. Good luck!

Edit: Someone mentioned above that the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a bad card for you because of the straight flush. I don't mention it here because I am not folding an A-high flush with position on the river to one bet in what would be a 14 or 15 BB pot.