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AA One Pair @ River. Obvious Fold?
Granted some may differ on flop/turn play here, but I'm interested in the river as played.
Live 1-2 NL game @ poker club, loose poorly played game. I have maybe 310 in front of me. Preflop action is a bit fuzzy, but I have AsAx on the button or in the cutoff. 5 players limp to me, I make it $23 (I imagine about half of you are wondering about the raise to 11.5xBB preflop. In live 1-2 NL @ poker clubs like this, this is what it takes to thin fields with this many limpers, "standard" raises are never respected.) Club owner, who is a maniac and almost always has suited trash, calls out of the blinds. Villian calls, one other player calls. 4 way to the flop, pot about $95. Villian is a woman who is a poor player, tight but calling station-esque preflop, and unfitting with the aforementioned, fires out big when she hits the flop. Flop 9s-6s-4x. It goes check-Villian fires out $40-fold to me. I call, club owner folds. (Why just call here? Good question. I imagine everyone thinks raise is standard here, but A) if I shove, the only hand that calls is beating me B) I want to play a small pot here, as I have zero read and players of her caliuber usually don't fire out into preflop raisers). Heads up to turn, pot = 170. Turn 3s. I have a spade redraw. Womans hands shake uncontrollably, it takes her a minute and a half to gather up another $40 bet. I call. (Anyone like a raise here? Is this nuts?) Pot = $250. River is a red Jack. Woman goes instantaneously AI for $160. Regardless of earlier streets, is this possibly in any way, shape or form a call I can make on the river? I folded pretty quickly and afterwards was told repeatedly that I was nuts for laying down the "sure" winner. As a matter of fatc I was so vehemently told that my fold was bad that I offered my remaining stack to anyone who could name 5 hands in the deck that I could beat, but, this is a story for another time. Thoughts? -EV to call on river or not? It's $160 into $410, which is about 2.6-1. Is a one pair hand good here +/-30% of the time? What do you put her on? And can you win the "name the 5 hands I can beat in her range" challenge? |
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