NL 50 KQ- Line check

[ablick]

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There's a lot of hands that villain could raise the flop with that you are ahead of on the flop but less on the turn. The turn bet indicates that villain is probably not drawing and has a stronger made hand than KQ.

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Turn bet indicates nothing. Vast majority of winning players would bet here about 80-90% of time with any hand.

Without any reads, it’s very hard to give right answer to this, but as a general rule, it’s not a big mistake to play conservatively against unknown opponents.

However, I did little math for this. I used PokerStove to calculate different situations on the flop (I didn’t consider the actions on the Turn at all because of the reasons mentioned above). I took all the hands that are possible here and examined how those would do against our K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I took into account possible amount of different hand combinations and also weighted those hand combinations with factors. I used factors, because some hands are more likely than others according to the action preflop and flop.

I’m not telling exact factors that I used, because I don’t want to turn this as an argument whether my factors are exactly correct or not. I just tried to evaluate how likely is that average player would play these hands like this. I didn’t try to find absolute truth, I just wanted to find some math as a back up for our decision. These figures will show my estimations how often we will loose, tie and win if we would play our hand to the showdown. There might be other possible hands, but those wouldn’t probably change much the results I got.

I estimated that 100% - 70% of the players would play following hands like in this example: KQ and 99.

69% - 40%: AK

39% - 10%: AT, AJ, AQ, KJ, 44 and hands that are on some kind of bluff like mid pair, flush draw and pure bluff hands.

So our Hero will:

Win 23%
Tie 28%
Loose 49%

So I can’t say that folding is a bad decision at all here. Only thing is that why call the reraise on the flop and then check/fold when total blank turns?