Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River

[grandgnu]

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Well I think i learned something from this thread. Just because a normal player won't pay off on this river very often, this player may. The more I think about it the more I like betting around 600. Although I'd like to hear some justification for calling a push. Say you bet 600 into the 1800 chip pot, and he pushes, you then need to call 1000 to win 5000. I can't imagine you're good more than 20% of the time here, and calling seems like chip spewing to me.

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I don't mind a value bet, when you believe with significant certainty that you have the best hand.

But this guy min-check raised us on the flop, check-called a HUGE turn bet and checked on the river. None of his actions make any sense (from our perspective) for him having made the straight, flush, set, top pair with good kicker, pair with draw, etc.

The only possible holding that Villian could have in this spot that would make sense with the way he played would be 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

But the chances for another holding are higher. Still, we aren't ahead of all of those holdings and his play did not reflect those hands.

So that means either he's a good player with the monster 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or he's a donk and we still don't know what his holding is.

Risking, let's say 600 chips (in the hope we get paid off another 600) is pretty much -EV here. If we're beat and get check-raised then here's our problem:

HOPE TO WIN: 600 chips

RISKING TO WIN THOSE CHIPS: 1600 + tournament life

We're pretty much risking 2.7 times the amount we hope to win.