NBA Overlays - November

[rjp]

YTD: 22-15-0 (+1.80 units; ROI: 4.86%)

Orlando Magic -300

Charlotte comes into this game off a big win over San Antonio, but they’re not that good. In fact, a big win like that for a young team like Charlotte can typically be a distraction. I find value with both laying 7.5 or the money line, and in this situation I feel there is more value with laying -300 instead of -7.5.

Boston Celtics +115

New York is playing above their heads right now. Both teams come into this game off of a back to back, with New York getting a blowout win over the defending champs. This is likely to be a distraction for the Knicks, and at worst this is a 50/50 tossup. I’ll gladly take these odds with Boston given the situation.

New Orleans Hornets / Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 185 (+100)

This game is likely to be played at a slow pace, with the true odds being ~180. Not a huge overlay, but one that provides a positive expectation over the long haul.

Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 (-112)

Memphis took a beating from Dallas at home last night, but the Mavs shouldn’t be giving up this many points to Memphis. Dallas is likely to win, but I expect Memphis to execute a game plan that gives them some sort of chance to win. Dallas isn’t likely to play as hard, either.

Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 (-104)

There are plenty of reasons to “not like” Philadelphia tonight. The Clippers are 5-0 at home, Philadelphia got torched in Phoenix last night, and the 76ers are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. In reality, however, it seems the 76ers took last night off after finding out that Nash would be sitting out. Phoenix played with much more intensity, and Philadelphia wasn’t ready for it. Tonight, however, the 76ers won’t be playing as soft, and they’ll be motivated to end this road trip on a good note. Philadelphia is likely to lose, but they should more often than not cover 9.5 points.