FTP 30/60: C/R'ed on river

[SparkyDog]

I made a post earlier but deleted and thought about the hand some more after I saw a few guys say call. But I didn't change my mind really. So I might be missing something, but I think you're in pretty bad shape here.

I don't mind your call/call/raise line except I'd want a better kicker since I think he'd realize the line when he saw it, and fold most worse made hands that he bet. It's pretty hard for him to suspect a bluff too, since it'd require you call-bluffing on a ragged ace high board vs. PF 3bettor, and we all know how profitable that is. If there's a street to raise here I think it's the flop.

Once he checkraises the river you're relying on a 3rd level bluff with a hand that's been good enough to 3bet PF and bet the flop and turn. I suppose it's possible he took another shot at making you fold on the turn, and then yet another 2BB shot on the river, but I don't think you're good 1/10 times here.

Another thing I was wondering was what Phil would be check/calling on this river. I don't see much value in a river bet honestly, because I think phil would just value bet anything he'd call with. There's just nothing that you could get to the river with that you're bluffing with, that I see. So I think if you're going to call a checkraise, then betting the river might not even be +EV.