interesting hand from foxwoods wpt

[gboro]

Loi Phan Doubles

Loi Phan raises $90,000 and Kathy Liebert re-raises $250,000 total. Phan pushes all in for an additional $200,000. Despite accidently exposing his hand, Phan still receives a call from Liebert. Phan shows the AhKh and Liebert turns over the AsJc. The board brings the AA1093 and Phan doubles up to over $1 million.


assuming the card player report is correct (and this is a bold assumption), the blinds were 10/20k with a 3k ante. there were 14 players left so 7 on each table. that makes 51k in the pot to begin with, plus phan's 90k, kathy's raise to 250k, and the additional 360k phan put in after his original opening bet. that would be 750k in the middle, giving kathy 3.75 : 1 on her call of 200k.

now once phan exposes his hand, kathy knows what kind of trouble she is in. she is 22% to win, 73% to lose, and just under 5% to tie. this makes her a 3.3 : 1 dog.

should she make the call?

p.s. kathy is the chipleader at this juncture with between 1.5 and 2mil in chips, which could definitely play a role in her decision here. what do you do if you start the hand with 1 mil? 800k?