tough spots and a beef with Sklansky (semi-rant)

[pete fabrizio]

This may not be exclusive to PLO, but I'm so tired of hearing the Sklansky Mantra that you should avoid making moves that could put you in a "tough spot" later on. E.g., Sklansky's line that you shouldn't bet if a raise will make you "throw up." Sklansky's reasoning is that you don't want to put yourself in a position where you could make a big mistake (either by making a bad fold or a bad call).

Sometimes this is true and sometimes it isn't. But if it is truly a "tough spot," you should be just as likely to make the right play (and possibly win a lot more money that you couldn't have won otherwise). A true "tough spot" is just another e.v. 0 spot, albeit with higher variance. Obviously that doesn't mean that risk of being put into a "tough spot" shouldn't be a consideration. E.g., checking behind when the benefits to betting are marginal and there is a good chance of being check-raised into a "tough spot" -- but it's not just because you might make a mistake, but because you are in an e.v. positive position and are risking being put into an e.v. 0 position.

Now I'm sure Mr. Sklansky understands all this and just uses that explanation as a shortcut so that he doesn't have to do a giant EV tree for every decision. But one area where I see this play out irrationally, imo, is when it comes to this forum and how to play aces. A lot of 2+2ers advocate playing them basically for set value only, unless you can get all or most of your money in before the flop. I think this nittish advice springs from a couple of things: 1) people don't raise/reraise enough with non-aces hands, and 2) people are deathly afraid of ending up in "tough spots" on the flop. If you are a terrible player and make net negative decisions, maybe this is right. However, aces are usually such a substantial equity favorite in most pots that I think people are just giving up too much by playing them so passively -- especially in good position and/or with good sidecards. So, sometimes you have to make a marginal call on a later street and lose -- that's poker, get over it. Sometimes you will make the tough call and win giant pots unimproved or with a counterfeiting 2 pair. (Not to mention you might take the pot uncontested, or win a big pot with your well-concealed side-cards, or hit top set and get paid off anyway, or any number of other profitable things might happen). And as a bonus, the more you play and get used to those situations, the more you will be able to spot the + and - e.v. plays better and better and those "tough" e.v. neutral spots will become rarer and rarer.