Thoughts on Fantasy Football So Far this Year

[capone0]

Well, were past 7 and into the 8th week of the season. Unlike the last couple of seasons, Quarterbacks seem to be the rage right now while running backs have been the rage for the last 3 years. In most of the leagues I'm in, it's a guy with either McNabb, Peyton or maybe Bulger who is leading the league while in years past it has usually been guys with LT, LJ or SA. Is this some changing of the guard? Or is it just some down year in the NFL for RBs. The last couple of years, those 3 RBs and maybe Priest have dominated the fantasy football scene. This year, LT and LJ have been good but not as good as either McNabb or Manning so far. I guess the argument is, there are many good QBs, thing is McNabb is so far ahead of anyone other than Peyton this year QB wise that his value is that high that it might have been worth an earlier pick on him (ie early first round).

Right now in ESPN leagues, McNabb is 57 points ahead of the second place player, Manning. Although McNabb has 1 more game to his name. Right now McNabb is averging ~26 ppg, while Manning is averaging 20 ppg which is almost 20% better than the #2 guy and 120% then the #16 guy (the median guy in NFL) and 37% better than the #5 guy who is Eli who is averaging about 15.6 ppg. This is a huge deal this year.

Likewise this year, the best running back is LT. He has 117 points in ESPN leagues. Westbrook is tied with him LT and both have played in 6 games (Westbrook was out) thus 19.5 ppg. Therefore there isn't much of a difference between 1 and 2 this year. #3 is LJ who has 106 points which is about 10% difference which is signicantly less. LT and LJ with respect to the 10th and 11th best RBs are 50% (10th and 11th would be the middle guys) which is still a huge difference but the difference between 10th and 11th and 20th is very small this year, only 16 points. Which is about a 2 ppg difference.

Last year Carson Palmer the #1 rated QB averaged 16.75 ppg in fantasy. #2, Brady, averaged 15 ppg which is pretty insignificant. Likewise the difference between #1 Carson and #5-#6 Eli/Hasseback is only 3 points per game while this year it's much bigger.

In 2005, the difference between the big 4 (includes Tiki) was huge in comparison to #10-11 spots. Tiki averaged 18.5 ppg, while the #10-11 only averaged 11 ppg a difference of 7 which is a 60% difference. While the difference between the #10 and #20 guy is still 2 ppg.

Thus the difference between the #1 and #2 QBs in the NFL to the rest of the Fantasy QBs is larger in comparison to years past while the difference between the top RBs has significantly shrunk. Like most years there is a huge group of players who are marginal. The key thing is the elite RBs are not as elite in years past, while McNabb and Manning seem to have a larger gap then in years past.

Wide Receiver numbers aren’t much different then years past. Although this year, at least right now, there seems to be a clump of good WRs the #10 and the #30 only have a difference of approximately 3 ppg.