Three Rivers Part III

[danderso8]

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what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent?

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Come on, man. He's not saying AA is *more likely* than AQ/KQ, he's saying it's likely enough that 10% of the time (or so) Hero's hand is good. That's why he calls.

Obviously villain's hand containing a Q is more likely.

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Exactly. I certainly don't think the villian had AA or KK, but I thought it was worth remembering so that the next time i find myself with AA on a river that double-pairs the board, I might know when it could be a value-bet/fold for me. (The earlier actions would obviously be different, because none of us would ever get our AA to the river with this action.)