[25 NL, 5-handed] Set over set, but can I fold? (long)

bigbb33 · #1 10-15-2006, 04:00 PM

Long post, hope will respond in detail too (though no requirements for length!).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($25.35)
UTG ($23.25)
MP ($20.90)
Button ($26)
SB ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.25, SB raises to $1.5, Hero calls $1.25, UTG folds, Button folds.

Flop: ($3.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $2.75, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $23.25, Hero calls $13.25.

Turn: ($50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $50

Going to go through my analysis of the hand:

Been at the table for 5 hands, this villain has folded all. He raised from the small blind to 1.5. This shows more strength than raising from the button, so it cuts down his range.

Range: AA - JJ, AK - AQ

Didn't think about this range when I was sitting down, just thought 'I'll call for set value'.

Anyway flop sets me, AJT. He bets out, possible cont bet. If I look back at his range, It has 6 hands, well 7 or 8 if you consider that AK and AQ are easier to get than AA or JJ. Either way, I'm going to assume that he's a cont better and would bet with anything, especially on this scary flop.

I'm beat by AA and JJ, ahead of KK, QQ, AK, AQ. So what's my move? I'm almost certain I misplayed the raise here, 3.5 betting him and giving me no odds to fold with the set. High probability he'll lay down KK and QQ with the ace on the flop to a raise of his bet, unless he wants to try to risk a set or go for the gutshot. AK and AQ, probably also lay it down as he's behind AJ and AT, and behind AK with AQ, along with JJ and TT of course.

Essentially if i raise his bet I can only see him doing two things: folding with KK, QQ, AK, AQ or maybe calling then checking the turn and giving it away... or raising with AA or JJ sets.

So my goal should be to do what?

A: Raise the minimum amount to get him to reveal his hand, ie raising me all in or calling then pushing big on the turn.
B: Call and see what happens on the turn?

Okay...

Option B seems completely unreasonable as any Q or K will completely screw me over, risking filling a straight or completely a better set. Or it could provide an opportunity to bluff a straight if he has AA or JJ, hmmm... But then I'm putting money into the pot on the flop with the hope that a Q or K will come, and then that only gives me opportunity to bluff at it. Please comment on this option seriously, need help. I don't think it's good though, leaving option A.

Option A... so what is the minimum bet to get him to fold AK, AQ, KK, or QQ? Remembering he bet out 2.75, maybe if I put it up to 7.75 forcing him to put 5 more in? But would he still call with AK or AQ? Maybe 8.75? Sounds better, what do you guys think?

So lets say that I raised his 2.75 flop bet to 8.75, and he shoved all in on me, esesntially like what happened in the hand except I had raised to 10 and put 1.25 more than a 8.75 raise would have committed to the pot.

Would he really shove with KK, QQ, AK, or AQ? Keeping in mind it's 25 NL and my super-early read is that he's tight, I don't think so on the KK or QQ hands, not with the fat ace sitting there. With AK or AQ, again what can he put me on? Ax? Because that's all he's beating, and there's no way he'd put me on that with the big raise...

So the only thing he's likely to shove with is AA or JJ, the top sets. I'll give it, say, a 80% chance he has the higher set and 20% chance he doesnt, thinkign either I'm bluffing, he can bluff me out, or whatever with his AK, AQ, he has enough outs, etc. What do you think of this probability? It's highly subjective and I just thought 'well thats good enough'... how would you calculate this range more exactly or objectively?

Pot odds are... call 12 to contest a 52 pot. Maybe 3.7:1, guessing in my head. Too bad my 80% or 4:1 chance of winning calculating was so subjective, because I really can't rely on it too well here. Seriously need help, what odds would you give to him having the goods or not having the goods, and how would you calculate it? I gave 4:1 (or 80%), but it just 'felt' like a good, roung number.

But still I don't have the odds and should fold, just barely.

--

Helps a lot to write all this out rather than just say 'luckbox, set over set' and move on to the next hand. Got some questions for those who read this far. Most important for anyone nice enough to answer my questions is to go into the 'why' and 'how' rather than just the answer: this hand is unlikely to come up to often, but the principles may, and I need to know the workings and methods that you use to come to your conclusions to be able to grasp the principles.

edit: Question: Do you consider my range I put on him good? Keep in mind it's 25 NL 6-max, and we are playing 5-handed. Looking back over the post it seems as though I can open up the range a bit to account for 5 handed, but the position says no. What do you think?

1. What do you think about what I considered to be my two options on the flop, either raising the minimum to get him to shove (either re-raising my raise of his flop bet, or calling then shoving the turn), or option B of calling him and trying to hit a scare card of K or Q. Do you consider there to be another option, like folding the flop straight out or shoving all in, etc?

2. If you agree that the raise was good on the flop and I should be doing it to get him to fold with the minimum amount invested in the raise, what amount would you think would be good? I said 8.75, what do you think and why?

3. What do you consider my odds of having the best hand at showdown to be on the flop? I gave it 80-20, or 4:1, but it was just a nice round number that I intuitively picked. Keep in mind this is odds I win at showdown, not odds i'm ahead on the flop.

4. Does folding, if I barely have the odds to do so, a bad move as it does more damage to my image than it does to my bankroll? ie, is it worth it to lose $1 on avg on this hand to show that I call stuff, to avoid being bluffed? Is this worth it at 25 NL, or at any stake?

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Okay thanks for reading all that stuff. I'd love replies, but PLEASE go through your reasoning so I can grasp your methods, rather than just saying 'fold here, you are behind more than ahead' or 'shove always, pre-reload, move to next hand'. Those answers are good but I'd like to know why.

bigbb33