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Old 10-11-2006, 07:04 PM
microbet microbet is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: fighting the power
Posts: 7,668
Default nl400 river value bet or not?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($477)
Button ($272.40)
SB ($414.20)
BB ($706.30)
UTG ($395.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $24</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $64</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $60, UTG calls $40.

Flop: ($194) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $72</font>, BB calls $72, UTG folds.

Turn: ($338) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $128</font>, BB calls $128.

River: ($594) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Villian checks, Hero?

Villian is probably 2p2. I'm playing something like 28/17. Open raiser has been open raising enough that he's on a wide range. I have 3 bet people a few times and haven't shown down anything that wasn't good.

On the flop I was going for bet/3bet all in, so I tried to size my bet to be reasonably strong, yet leave room for FE on the final raise.

On the turn, I bet smallish again compared to the pot, but we weren't deep compared to the pot and I wanted a weak ace or a flush draw (not super likely) to come along.

On the river, can he possibly have a better hand here? Maybe the two remaining Queens? 88, 66, and 79 seem unlikely.

On the other hand A8, A6, A5, and AK seem pretty unlikely too.

That doesn't leave many hands. Does he have those hands and call with them often enough that I should bet?
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