KQs UTG - Value Bet This River?

SixForty · #1 10-11-2006, 03:46 AM

I sat and debated for a moment whether or not I should value bet this river. What do you think?

Live 10/20 game - 10 handed, loose aggressive. Typically 5-7 to a flop for one bet each, or 3-5 to a flop if raised.

Reads:
SB - semi-tight/aggressive. Seems to like to checkraise, with made hands, draws and bluffs. Tricky and tough to read.
BB - semi-tight/passive, weak. I play against her on a regular basis, probably 2 out of 3 times I play. She plays here every day, and is predictable, easily readable, and an almost regular donator.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero raises, 7 folds, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: (3 players, 6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB hesitates, looking like he may checkraise, then calls, BB calls.

Turn: (3 players, 4.5 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (3 players, 10.5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, Hero . . . ?

With BB's play, and her mannerisms during the hand, I'm about 95% sure she missed her club flush draw, which may or may not have been Ace high. She will call with a pair of Aces. She may call with a pair of 7's if she held a flush draw with the 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Otherwise, I fully expect her to fold here on the river. (Note, she would have folded any pair below a K on the turn, and would usually fold something like KJ to the two bets cold on the turn)

Do you think SB has a worse hand, and will pay off here often enough? Is it worth it to try?