Panel hand #2 - turn panel review

FUJItheFISH · #1 10-10-2006, 03:26 PM

You actually call. MP1 calls and MP2 calls closing the action. Still 5 players to the turn for 10.25 big bets.

(7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero?

Panelist 1
I'm going to reassess my outs here.
Overcards: 1/6. I reduce that by one because of the flop raiser and the now possible straight on the board.
Hearts: Still 7 discounted outs
Backdoor straight: Zero, it died w/ the turn.

So I calculate 8 outs, giving me about a 16% chance of making my hand. My pot equity is still 1/5, or 20%, so betting would be –EV.

I’ll check, and wait. 

Panelist 2
I check and evaluate the action. The pot is big, so I typically plan to call several bets with my flush draw. 

Panelist 3
The 6 completes a possible straight draw, which could put another opponent behind. It has not, on the other hand, double-paired the board, which is good news for our flush draw. On the other hand, having missed the flush (and our very discounted top-pair outs) on the turn, our equity in the hand drops a considerable amount--I'd estimate to around 20%.

I can't really see a reason to bet here, as there is virtually no action that could take place--given the size of the pot--that would make you want to fold here. I check, planning to call even a goodly number of bets. 

Panelist 4
This does put a straight out there. 89 is not an unreasonable holding with this many players. This continues to reduce the value of my overcards. Praying for that heart. I will check raise the turn. The pot is again large. I want mp1 and 2 out of this hand. Plenty of combos will have me dead here on the paired board. I just don't want them to catch that. I am ready to call down the 3bet. I can also revaluate my hand if the button raises before my check raise. (If he did I would cold call it, yes it gives my hand away, but I don't see 3betting as a good choice. I would also have good odds here. There is very little value in it. Basically I'm committed into winning a big pot or losing about 6 bb this hand.)