variance

[younghov17]

lately ive been thinking a lot about variance, specifically how do i know im a winning player and i havent just been running lucky. theoretically variance can swing 1 way or the other for an almost infinite number of hands. my career of 500 to 600k hands is small when u think of this way. ive been trying to think what seperates a winning player from a losing player or a marginal winner from a bigger winner. the difference between a regular and a 60/5 is obvious, but when comparing regulars to regulars are we all the same skill level just waiting for our turn to get lucky? how can any of us be sure that we are actually winners and not just running good?

also posted in msnl, but i think it can be a good discussion