Week 7 CFB Notions (and Season Recap)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

As you probably know, it has not been a good season for me so far. After this weekend, I went back to look at my plays to this point to try to get some answers. My conclusion: despite consistently getting better-than-average numbers, my plays have not been especially good. Frankly, I don't think that my luck has been good either, in a number of regards (i.e. lots of close losses, some bad beats, and, WORST of all, a bunch of Jekyll and Hyde performances from teams that I was trying to back/fade).

But, the fact is that I don't think I have a lot of room to complain. As bad as my weekend was, it could have easily been worse. Temple and Texas might have looked like "right" sides, but neither one was, and I was fortunate to win both. And, that has held true throughout the season; I'd say that, looking back, I don't feel good about almost one-third of my wins. Just as I could be well in the black with some slightly better luck, I could be MUCH farther in the red if my luck were terrible to this point, rather than just bad.

So, the point that I am trying to make is that, to this point, the "handicapping" hasn't been there. I've been so caught up in trying to find "value" that I haven't paid sufficient attention to finding good match-ups. So, yesterday, I worked my ass off, and I think that I've found a bunch of plays that I'm going to feel good about, win or lose.

The basis of my handicapping strategy is as follows:

1) Look to play teams that have outstanding run offenses or run defenses; look to fade teams that cannot run or cannot stop the run
2) Look to play teams that win the turnover battle; look to fade teams that lose the turnover battle
3) Look for teams that have success/problems against one specific type of opponent (e.g. running QB's)

So, with that in mind, here are my plays for this week. So far, it's a mixed bag as far as getting the best of the number, but I think that I've got the best of it by a smidge to this point.

2 units - Oklahoma -19.5 -105 vs Iowa St.
2 units - Oklahoma/Iowa St. o46 -105
2 units - Bowling Green -11 -105 vs E. Michigan
2 units - Bowling Green/E. Michigan o49.5 -105
2 units - S. Florida -4.5 -105 at UNC (AWFUL number [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])
2 units - W. Virginia -25.5 -105 vs Syracuse
2 units - Colorado St./Air Force u47 -105
2 units - Tulsa -2.5 -105 at ECU
2 units - Kansas St. +14 -115 vs Nebraska (GREAT number [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
2 units - UCLA +11.5 -108 at Oregon
2 units - Oregon St. +11 -105 at Washington

Write-ups will come periodically. As always, all thoughts are appreciated.

ML4L