Northern Illinois -13.5 @ Miami (OH)

[BobJoeJim]

Only Game of the Day (ytd 4-1)

Okay, technically the Nevada/Hawaii game started on Sunday... eastern time, but since I live on the west coast I think this game still counts as the OGotD.

Miami University is 0-5. Most recently they lost 24-10 @ Cincinnati, allowing 6.2 yards per carry. Before that they lost 34-14 @ Syracuse, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Before that they lost 16-14 to Kent State at home, allowing 4.3 yards per carry (5.2 by the primary runners). Before that they lost 38-31 @ Purdue, allowing 6.1 yards per carry. Before that they lost 21-3 to Northwestern at home allowing 4.9 yards per carry.

Northern Illinois has Garrett Wolfe. Wolfe has 9.3 yards per carry. Northern Illinois has won three in a row. Northern Illinois even has a decent quarterback to supplement Wolfe (rated 134).

I would normally look a little more in depth at other factors here, but I really have no respect for any of the teams Miami has lost too. I think Miami horrible, and run defense looks like their big weakness. They've been degenerating, while Northern Illinois has been improving. It seems pretty simple to me, Wolfe goes crazy, NIU wins big. As in more than 13.5 big. Okay, fine, I'll go take a look at NIU's defense and Miami's offense now, before making this official...

Oh look! 2.3 yards per carry! I suppose quarterback Mike Kokal's stats are okay... wait, what's that? He missed the last game with injury? And his backup is rated 87.9? Kokal is listed as probable, but they coaches still say they're taking it day to day, I have trouble seeing him being 100%. Okay, so defense isn't NIU's forte, they aren't lights out, Ball State threw it well against them, and so did Ohio in their 35-23 win. Miami does have Ryne Robinson, and if Korvath turns out to be healthy they could score some. Probably still not much, though, this isn't a good offense, even if it's not a good defense either. We don't need a three TD win here, two will do. I think we have a cushion, though maybe not a huge one. I see 35-17 as the most likely score, with a higher margin as likely as a lower one. It might not be the biggest edge ever, but I feel it's definitely +ev, my money is on Garrett Wolfe. Northern Illinois -13.5